Saying Virginia will turn blue would be a bold prediction by anyone, since Virginia has voted for a Republican president in every election since 1968.  Even in 1992 and 1996 when the Democrats won by landslides, Virginia held loyal for the Republicans.  And in 1976, when Jimmy Carter took most of the South, Virginia remained red.  What makes this year unique is a combination of factors working against John McCain from taking Virginia. 

            First, the U.S. is facing an economic slowdown.  This would not normally affect a Republican’s chances of winning the state, given that we have faced economic slowdowns before.  But, with a Republican in the White House, the party is being blamed for the economic problems.  John McCain’s biggest weakness in the minds of many voters is his ability to lead on the economy.  Since the economy right now is the number one concern for most voters, these factors will persuade a percentage of Virginians into voting for the Democrats. 

            Second, the Republicans have been in the White House for eight years.  Political scientists have known for some time that this works against the party in power.  This is termed “time for change” or “party fatigue” and some voters want to give the other party a chance to govern.  In that past 64 years, there has been a general trend in presidential elections where the electorate decides to vote for the party out of power. Here is the historical trend of presidential control by party:

1944, Democrat

1952, Republican

1960, Democrat

1968, Republican

1976, Democrat

1980, Republican

1992, Democrat

2000, Republican 

            Every eight years, with the exception of 16 years (Carter / Reagan / Bush), the party out of power is given the keys to the White House.  While over the last 44 years, Virginia has not followed the national trend, the percentage of people voting Republican always declines slightly after a Republican has been in office eight years. 

            Third, George Bush has a low approval rating which is a proxy for how Americans in general view the party.  Add to that a war that is not popular and it is a recipe for more voters turning against the party in power.  Virginia is not immune to this influence because the percentage of people voting Republican declines when the Republican president is less popular. 

            Fourth, the state of Virginia is becoming more liberal over the last 44 years.  This is supported by the fact that Virginia has recently elected a Democratic senator and the last two governors have been Democrats.  The populous northern and southeastern parts of Virginia are becoming more liberal as northerners are moving into the region.   

            All of these factors combined with the steady stream of recent news about the financial crisis spell disaster for McCain and the Republicans in Virginia.  In fact, a statistical model predicting the two party vote share in Virginia has McCain receiving just over 40%.  However, since McCain is not the Vice President as is usually the case, the number may be 5 - 8% more than that.   

             So the D2Dpolitics.com predicted vote in Virginia: 

                                Barack Obama - 52%   --   John McCain - 48%

Unless something major happens or some factor unknown occurs, Virginia will be turning blue this November.